SUMMARY

Manifold has the opposite problem of PredictIt today: there are too many markets (37,011 markets as of 12/19/23 at 10:16am ET), making it hard to sort through everything to find topics and questions of interest. I'd like to use the dashboard function to create lists of 3 to 6 markets that are of some sort of interest to people notable to the prediction market community (i.e., "Austin's 2024 Picks") and a short blurb about why. Robin Hanson, Nate Silver, and Domer are likely using prediction markets in very different ways that would be interesting for both existing Manifold users and non-users to learn about. These 'Manifold Celebrity Picks' would be spread them out so there are 2 curated dashboards per month; after the first 6 months measure engagement in those markets and re-evaluate. Ideally, this would start with the Manifest speakers and expanding outward to the greater forecasting and prediction market community.

FUNDING

The funding will compensate me for my time. If given contact info from Manifest then I will conduct the project for free because reaching out to people will be the biggest time suck. This is a low-skill but tedious project so only one person is needed. No other funding is needed or requested. Frankly, it could be done by an intern and I'd be fine with that outcome.

POINTS OF FAILURE

The biggest hurdle is engaging the targets. Cold emailing/calling people to ask them to participate will probably generate a low response rate. My experience in direct marketing leads me to believe that having good contact information, and/or emailing targets from an official Manifold email account, would greatly increase the response rate.